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Gaming => General Gaming Discussion => Topic started by: Sharky on July 15, 2015, 10:58:21 pm

Title: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: Sharky on July 15, 2015, 10:58:21 pm
I thought it would be a bit of fun if we all bet on the final numbers for the Shenmue 3 Kick Starter and see who is closest at the end!
What do you believe will be the final number of backers AND the final amount of dollars raised?

At this current point in time I am going to bet:
Backers: 62,000
Dollars raised: 5,250,000

Place your bet.... NOW!
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: CrazyT on July 15, 2015, 11:06:06 pm
Yeah this is whats really interesting me at the moment. My last 2 estimates based on trends were 6 million and then 6.5 million.

Ive never followed a kickstarter this close at the end so im not too familiar with the usual trends.

Anyway I may actually go with a definite estimate now between the last two. So im gonna say 6.2 million at the end
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: Pao on July 15, 2015, 11:40:51 pm
I'm going to be hopeful and say:

Backers: 65k
Money raised: $6M



Ryan, you're gonna lose that bet.  It's already around $5.1M right now.   It will easily reach $5.2M today I reckon.
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: George on July 15, 2015, 11:41:50 pm
I'm going to be hopeful and say:

Backers: 65k
Money raised: $6M

Sounds about right. Tho I know it made 6 million due to high priced tiers. 65k backers, would that be '65k copies sold', that isn't a lot.
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: Tad on July 16, 2015, 12:37:35 am
Yeah, about 6m was my guess from the start. I think it'll be interesting to see how many people back it though. Once it's closed, we'll get a better picture of what SEGA could earn if they remastered the first two. ;)
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: MadeManG74 on July 16, 2015, 07:36:15 am
I reckon a touch over $6M.
Glad I'm getting paid this week. My credit card is going to get punched in the dick this weekend with paying for Shenmue and then my New York trip in August.

I need to go cry.

EDIT: Wait, why am I crying? I'm getting Shenmue III and a trip to New York. Fuck money, get bitches.
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: max_cady on July 16, 2015, 08:27:20 am
Backers: 60.000 backers
Final Amount: 5.5 Million.
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: Aki-at on July 16, 2015, 08:29:43 am
I think about 67,000 backers and $5.9 million raised.
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: Sharky on July 16, 2015, 09:05:13 am
More than happy to be wrong in this case.
Okay I put in a renewed bet at:

Backers: 64,000
Dollars raised: 5,550,000
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: Centrale on July 16, 2015, 09:14:54 am
Backers: 63,000
Moolah: $5.68 mil
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: Nathan on July 16, 2015, 10:12:56 am
Help Yu Suzuki plan a part of Shenmue III if you buy the $10k dinner at Monaco. Also, a chance to go to the very first event Shenmue III will be shown at! Wow. Wish I could afford.

Anyways...I am really confident we will beat Bloodstained now. My guess is $5.8 but I hope I am really wrong and we get way higher.
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: CrazyT on July 16, 2015, 04:52:46 pm
Few more hours before the last 24 hours start.

I gotta say I thought the last 2 days were gonna be a bit more exciting than it it currently is. I guess it really blew its load right from the start and also when ps4 physical got anounced. One things for sure, its gonna set a record on kickstarter which is nothing short of amazing for shenmue as a franchise that didnt get a chance from SEGA.

Overall I just think expecations were a bit too high, but around 6 million should hopefully be good enough for the game development.. Hope yu suzuki still has it in him to lead a team and direct a big project into greatness
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: Sharky on July 16, 2015, 05:07:56 pm
Milestone post!

(https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/v/t1.0-9/s480x480/11219623_10153510657394380_7769087946451087893_n.jpg?oh=1cb46bcae177c5b32c7c20543c9bb5b7&oe=56153FF5&__gda__=1443848270_7cb946fbe86cb232aaed6fad4800475e)
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: Phantasos on July 16, 2015, 05:14:44 pm
It might get to 6 mil. Emphasis on might.

But it's gonna beat Bloodstained easy. Guess the power of reputation can even outdo marketing some times.
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: George on July 16, 2015, 05:22:24 pm
I think part of the reason that its not really moving as much it could is because the people running the kickstarter are relying on fans putting out the message and using its own social media to do questions. It should have been emailing big media chains to work with them to do stories on not only mainstream gaming channels but also media channels. I think mass media knows this industry is huge and having a story on something like Shenmue 3, 14 years later might have sparked a interest in a new audience.

Instead they sorta kept it around the #SaveShenmue fanbase to do all the work.
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: Aki-at on July 16, 2015, 05:30:55 pm
It might get to 6 mil. Emphasis on might.

But it's gonna beat Bloodstained easy. Guess the power of reputation can even outdo marketing some times.

I wouldn't say this game had no marketing since it was announced at E3 during Sony's presentation. Even though Bloodstained had the more competent marketing team, this game easily got the most exposure to a wider audience.
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: Centrale on July 18, 2015, 02:42:32 pm
Okay, so the results are in. I'm happy to say that the Kickstarter exceeded everyone's predictions! I'm only listing the top 5 of each category - however, there were several more people (myself included) who bet low on the total, so... I'm just glad we were wrong!

Total earned

$6,333,295

1. Crazy T - $6,200,000
2. MadeManG7 - "a touch more than" $6,000,000
3. Pao - $6,000,000
4. Tad - $6,000,000
5. Phantasos - "almost" $6,000,000


Backers

69,320

1. Aki-at - 67,000
2. Pao - 65,000
3. Sharky - 64,000
4. Centrale - 63,000
5. max_cady - 60,000


Congratulations, everyone! Your prize is a big, sweaty hug from Delin. A hug that you try to make brief, but Delin holds on and makes it go on for a long time.
Title: Re: Shenmue 3 KS - Betting on the final numbers!
Post by: Barry the Nomad on July 18, 2015, 02:44:34 pm
If we get new forum software that has badges or rewards, I'll gladly make a Delin badge for Aki and Crazy T