Oh, boy... It's not that it's a bad idea to start thinking about new hardware, but I don't think the time is right for a new console cycle.
If there is one thing that Microsoft needs to get their sh*t together is indeed 1st party software.
They never brave outside of Fable, Gears of War, Halo and Forza, that's it. Alan Wake was a gamble and it failed, but at least it was something different. The last events have been pretty sad because they almost always put their franchises in the background and promote the next big Call of Duty game as if they own it. It is pretty sad.
Maybe with Kinect they can strike some gold, but right now, their current line-up is pretty sad.