I'm rather skeptical that Sonic Heroes sold 3 million on the PS2, but if we're going to use VgChartz as a source, then I suppose it'd be fair to say Sonic Adventure 2 sold 2.6 million on the GCN, not the 1.5-2 I guessed. The VG numbers, then, have us at an adoption rate of something like 1:9. While 2.6 million isn't quite 3, I think it's plenty impressive in context. I do not think Sonic Adventure 2 would have sold much more on the PS2, despite that system's install base.
And which series were pumping out over a million on PS2? Sonic, one Virtua Fighter game and Yakuza - which was (conveniently for the purpose of argument) only successful in Japan. The rest of the pack hardly inspires me to go buy stock. Astro Boy was hardly a runaway. Same with Blood Will Tell, Nightshade, Virtual On Marz, the Sakura Taisen series, after a point the J-League games, and so on. Plenty of high profile, expensive, disappointments - especially Sakura Taisen, which was supposed to be expanded into this giant metaverse sort of deal, wasn't it?
The Gamecube saw very few high budget games, and, generally speaking, games sold reasonably relative to their budgets. PSO I&II was a port of a DC game that probably made its budget back in 2000, III wasn't a roaring success, I'll grant you, but it wasn't a re-imagining of the Phantasy Star world with a three year long development cycle and robust budget, either. Skies of Arcadia was a pruned port, Crazy Taxi was a port, and so on. The PS2 saw plenty of high profile, expensive games (like Astro Boy) flop, badly. The GCN did, too (like Billy Hatcher), but I think it had a better record, on the whole.
I don't think Billy would have done much, if any, better on the PS2. I suppose a multi-release wouldn't have hurt, but Sonic Team never seemed to wrap their heads around the PS2, so for the sake of critical acclaim, it might be for the best that didn't happen.
I think you're confusing my two statements, and I could have written them better. Sonic Adventure was being developed as early as spring 1997, which would have been roughly the same time Burning Rangers was getting underway. Burning Rangers couldn't have been in the burner for more than a few months before development of Sonic Adventure got rolling. I wasn't saying they were poking around in the Yucatan in spring 97 (I don't remember when they went, but it was fairly early in development, wasn't it?) - I was just illustrating the difference in priority.
Sonic Team used the early Saturn engine of Sonic Adventure for Sonic Jam and then changed platforms to DC. It wasn't as if they were making Sonic Jam's engine just to have a neat menu - it was recycled material from their early development.
Point taken with Samba, though I'm still going to have to disagree with you on Chu Chu Rocket. There's a big difference between the single player Phantasy Star text adventures being downloaded on a cable box, or even the network play you could dick around with on the Saturn, and something like Chu Chu Rocket. It wasn't an easy task, which would be why it was just a puzzle game.
No, nothing with Air NiGHTS, but the point I was trying to convey was they had a lot of balls going at once. Even if the game was just at the conception stage, that is still taking time, money and attention away from other projects.
I think we're sort of straying a bit at this point. All I was trying to say was Burning Rangers wasn't a failure because of the Saturn. It wasn't a game like Shenmue that had to move a lot of figures to break even; it was just one of many games Sonic Team was working on at the time, like Propeller Arena or OutTrigger were just games AM2 was working on in 2000. It didn't meet sales expectations - and there were plenty of Saturn games that did meet expectations in 1998.
Virtua Fighter was impressive (it was recognized by the Smithsonian wan't it?), and I was speaking too melodramatically when I said it flopped. My bad. Let me try that again. It didn't meet expectations. I agree it sold decently, but as you said, it wasn't the Street Fighter slayer it was in Japan, which is what the Japanese executives seemed to hope - I feel like a couple of western fighters were axed, like Eternal Champions, so Sega could concentrate it's firepower on promoting Virtua Fighter. As far as I can tell, it became a rather obscure niche title in the west by the mid to late 90s, and it has more or less stayed that way. It certainly never became the system seller it was in Japan, or the one Soul Calibre would become for the DC. I don't think it was on the strength of the western arcade market that Virtua Fighter stayed afloat - I don't even think western sales mattered for that series either way, like they don't for Yakuza today.