Let's talk about the gaming industry and potential future

[CrazyT]

Sup guys

So going around the net i've recently found stories about some lay offs happening in the last couple of days/week. Irational games(Biosock series) shrinking to only 15 people. Not sure how many people were working before, also not sure if it the studio is still called Irational games, but yeah.

Also I was surprised after visiting IGN yesterday to find out yesterday Sony Santa monica has also fired 50 people from a pretty incredible studio that has been making the great god of war games. Especially this case has got me a bit confused because sony has been doing pretty great lately so what gives?

Is the money being made off this massive industry not turning profits or am I missing something else?

I'm starting to get a bit worried but at the same time it may be for the best if the AAA industry collapses. Imho, selfishly this format has attracted a massive audience that has encouraged the type of game I really despise. Usually guns or doing task/chore gameplay is part of the best selling franchises and maybe these games just dont deserve to be sustained. Should these devs stop investing so much cash into hollywood blockbusters and start investing less into more substansial games?

Anyway apart from my views, is it possible that the publishers will have to change their ways in order for their companies to stay healthy? How drastic does this change have to be? How many more will follow because I really expect more will.

What do ya'll think about all this news. Is it a cause for alarm or isn't there much to worry about. Or like in my views, maybe for the best so that smaller devs like indie developers take over, grow and make big budget games with their way of thinking (if they don't lose it lol)

Edit: You know I wanna add some older news as well. Like how most japanese publishers have stopped creating big HD games. SEGA for example has been making a lot less games for consoles as well. I mean sensibly since consoles dont make out the biggest audience in their homeland. The releaselist just feels barren on consoles.

[George]

I think the reason that Santa Monica was so big was because there where tons of people working there just helping other 1st parties get PS3 games out, since it was hard to code. I assume they didn't need to big of a team for PS4 games.

Who knows. Maybe they are losing money. If God of War can't bring in cash, what will companies like SEGA do?

[inthesky]

Apparently a Gamasutra writer had been tipped that if Bioshock Infinite was not a MEGATON seller, Irrational was toast anyway.

The companies don't have to change their views, at least to one that benefits "The Art." Speaking outside of first party, as in Japan the West seems to be dominated by companies like EA and Take Two, perhaps Ubisoft and Warner Bros., with studios dying over time or being absorbed by publishers. The same in Japan - there are about six big Japanese companies: our lovely SEGA, Capcom, Bandai-Namco, Square-Enix, Tecmo-Koei, and Konami. Speaking about Japan, I've seen people comment that they were behind in development practices compared to the West, but I don't know much about that for sure.

If you continue to value high risk high reward projects and believe that they'll pan out for you, or if they have in the past (for you or someone else!), when things go wrong it's going to appear to make sense to lay off people, cancel new (perhaps ambitious and creative, perhaps soulless and derivative) projects. Smaller studios and projects are less of a risk than mid tier budget projects, erasing the question of whether or not its an established brand and what not. Intense stratification like we can observe here is bad in most any context I think.

There's also a budget problem (too many people working on Assassin's Creed games and Resident Evil 6!), but that budget problem is tied into the blockbuster appeal for some games. For something much smaller, you may want to look at Skullgirls. It's also worth considering that offices for game companies are situated in places that cost a lot to live in.

Really, it seems like most people know better. Though you have to question how ill-gotten it is, the gaming industry is generally profitable; I've read once that it's more profitable to be in games than in movies. There's this NaughtyDog interview calling for diversity (AAA, midtier, etc.) and this highly compelling interview segment with SEGA's Ethan Einhorn saying consoles aren't dying and diversity is good. It's just a consistent management problem, with too many elements that are rotten, like QA being awful.

edit: it's worth noting that there are elements that are organic and elements that aren't. The mainstream gamer's tastes change. There isn't anything fundamentally offensive about Angry Birds existence as a game, it's just that few mobile developers will ever be anything like that.

[George]

I think this whole idea that projects need multiple million dollars, 150 developers, and stories to 'rival' Hollywood films is going to slowly die. I mean, it will be around, but I think more people are focused on the idea of gameplay, especially online.

Look at the latest PC hits, Minecraft just announced that they over 100 million users. Considering that the game was created by one dude (now its more) as a pet project and now has more users than Call of Duty wishes it had, at 1/10th the budget. Considering there is a deal now for a film on Minecraft: http://www.polygon.com/2014/2/27/5454788/minecraft-movie-warner-bros

I feel bad, I think games like Jet Set Radio, Skies of Arcadia and so on would have done well in the indie market we have right now on PC. Creativity > Budget...

[Aki-at]

I was equally as shocked as anyone after hearing Irrational Games went kaput and I was surprised that Sony were cutting down some people at Santa Monica. However after checking up on some facts and letting the shock leaving my system both more or less make perfect sense.

Irrational Game got shut down because it took 5 years for them to produce just a single game! Reading up on the development history of Bioshock Infinite it really was troubled right through out, infact there was so much cut content they could produce a completely separate game. Poor management killed the studio, not the game's performance.

Who knows. Maybe they are losing money. If God of War can't bring in cash, what will companies like SEGA do?

To be fair, God of War: Ascension was the worst selling title in the series. Did well in America but poorly in Europe which I'd put down to franchise fatigue. In anycase it's the new IP Santa Monica was working on, which brings me onto my second point;

Sony is currently in the process of a massive restructure and they are looking to shed 5,000 jobs for now to March 2014 so I'd say the people effected by this are just part of the bigger project (And the new IP probably was seen as too risky, or maybe they took on too many risks, to proceed)

That's not to say the AAA industry isn't flawed, it is. The problem was publishers like Electronic Arts and Ubisoft begun the graphical arms race to push mid-tier publishers out of the industry. They've successfully managed that but now they find themselves in the same hole they placed their competitors in as their budgets are spiraling out of control and no end in sight infact I would not be surprised to see Electronic Arts and Ubisoft (Along with Capcom and Square Enix) completely fall apart sometime in the current generation, just to point out how badly Electronic Arts has done;

2007: $76 million
 2008: $-454 million
 2009: $-1088 million
 2010: $-677 million
 2011: $-276 million
 2012: $76 million
2013: -$308 million so far

So a pause for thought when people keep urging their favourite publishers to go all out and wow us graphically or with a multitude of new IPs, it's not safe in the current industry or advisable unless you stick to a strict budget.

[inthesky]

Sony is also cutting down a bunch of their stores in the US, too.

[RegalSin]

The future of gaming are "low-budgeted games" not these pay-per-view, abominations. Download pay, no way...... casual games ha ha ha ha, what am a woman ( or a french cigarette )? I mean look at all the colors, the details, the captivating story, it photogenic and so sibylline. The idea should be, if you pay for a download, you also pay a portion for a real game, and then later when you want the whole game, you can go to your local specialty shop, just not gamestop. They want to turn everything into lazy-blockbuster ( netflix ). A person does not have a powerful T2 connection for paying for something that has no resale value.

Even I have my Dreamcast/Saturn dream project....if I only knew where to start

[Nameless 24]

I'm at the point of my life where the hobby I used to love is starting to become less of a hobby and more of a chore.

Some quality games come out every year but I feel like the audience I belonged to is being pushed out (I'm nor "Hardcore" nor "Casual, I like my Mid-Tier games and played the occasional "big" Japanese game), I either have to adapt to the AAA or Indie game scene or just not bother as most Mid Tiered Companies have gone bankrupt and the likes of Namco, SEGA or even Konami aren't taking the risk with new IPs that may have a small following anymore. Nintendo included regarding pumping out Mario after Mario game and the occasional franchise of Kirby, DK or Smash.

I actually don't mind if the likes of Ubi, EA and Activision are cut down a notch due to the budgets. Actually, I think Ubisoft are at least trying other things like Child of Light (which I am interested in), so it's not all bad.

Another Market Crash is inevitable at this point (and not just to America, but WW), and those of us who still care to game will just move to PC in the foreseeable future.

Anyway, I'm less inclined to follow if or when Nintendo, Namco, SEGA and the like are either gone or vastly reduced to making Mobile Phone games. Nothing against having games on that platform, but I think I'm moving onto other hobbies any way now.

[RegalSin]

Their is nothing wrong with you. Your just outside the spectrum now, like me. You long for those days or concurrent themes, only to know the truth.

It is a chore, because with SEGA you knew what you was getting into, un-like me with Nintendo, you have no abandon all hope, because it is possible for a full on SEGA comeback.

What is going to happen is that, the big investors,are going to see a cascading pattern, that will set things into motion. Do not worry, look around us, the world is becoming more and more like us, and all we have to do is wield it into the right direction. They know the future, and we know it too.

[CrazyT]

I'm not an expert on the subject, but it was just something that struck me as odd. Thanks for some of your enlightening thoughts. I am thinking about how tomb raider didn't reach its goal back then, what about the current gen games? Will they cost even more?

Well whatever it is, seeing so much lost money being presented when you'd think things are going well is worrying. I hope things go well for my favourite devs out there at least. Poor SEGA has not been able to compete in the master arms race anymore in the west. I wonder if they're even gonna try this gen?

[RegalSin]

SEGA is just trying to stay stable. In order for these companies to compete, against the big hitters, they have to make something, an event, or someway of delivering to the masses. Like take

Skyrim? Why was this game such a big deal? I will tell you why, because of "Oblivion", and because people were searching the land for J-RPG ( Action game elements ), and the graphics was mind blowing this game works. Nowadays we see games with 2d graphics taking that spot, and why? Because people do not care anymore about the 3d graphics as they did before.

[inthesky]

I think the above comments on Skyrim are right and wrong. Speaking as an outside observer/someone who doesn't play Elder Scrolls, I have routinely seen comments from enthusiasts of the series who say that the franchise became more casual/mechanically inferior over time. Perhaps starting with Oblivion. Passed that...I don't get it, it's not a JRPG, Demon Souls and Dark Souls were already out (the closest analogue to Skyrim, if I can hazard that guess). And I thought Skyrim was buggy?

I do think that people care a little less about graphics in the mainstream/it's not advertised as much because the advancements over time aren't all that significant for that audience.

edit: since i didn't think this merited a new post, I just want to add that I think that the gaming industry will benefit significantly from stronger economies across the world. cutbacks in discretionary spending, due to stunted wage growth/declining full time opportunities, are harming the gaming industry big time. It's a huge problem, one of the others being the consolidation of studios under larger publishers and the trimming down of active portfolios within active game companies in Japan

this is also interesting

http://neojaponisme.com/2011/11/28/the-great-shift-in-japanese-pop-culture-part-one/

[RegalSin]

When I say, J-RPG, I mean to say an RPG with Action elements, or an Action game with RPG elements, like "Wonder Boy", "Adventure Island", and "Metroid" . I say J-RPG because that is the only way I can identity the genre. Yeah sure Skyrim is basically another 3d, DAD, but for many players they saw it as a way to play a Zelda game, but not on a Nintendo console. So lets not get into that.......

In short I consider every single action oriented adventure game to be a J-RPG, including "Super Mario", "Sonic", "Resident Evil", and "Metal Gear". I am kinda sick and tired of dividing videogame genre, I mean just because I am western does not mean I have to be like, this genre is for that kind of person, or rubbish like that, it just limit me.

The future of all PC games are mods, leaving consoles with nothing but fancy gaphics until it gets ported. About Skyrim, in today's world, that is like "Garys Mod", or stuff like that. They have tons of lame mods for this game, like if it is DOOM wad season or something. look at the original Tomb Raider, and the various things done to that, for the PSX versus the PC version. Even Quake and Sims, have theirs.

If it was the good days before the X-box, only a hand full of people would care about "Elder Scrolls" games.

[SteveSteinr]

The future of gaming are "low-budgeted games" not these pay-per-view, abominations. Download pay, no way...... casual games ha ha ha ha, what am a woman ( or a french cigarette available at ecigfiend)? I mean look at all the colors, the details, the captivating story, it photogenic and so sibylline. The idea should be, if you pay for a download, you also pay a portion for a real game, and then later when you want the whole game, you can go to your local specialty shop, just not gamestop. They want to turn everything into lazy-blockbuster ( netflix ). A person does not have a powerful T2 connection for paying for something that has no resale value.

Even I have my Dreamcast/Saturn dream project....if I only knew where to start

Well I do agree with you..Full version of game must not be available for free download..

[RegalSin]

Exactly, no version of any game should be a download, under most circumstances. The way I see things, is that they want to get rid of games, and just suck our money away. Ten thousand years later, even if I was a stooge, I will still have my games from the Genesis/NES days to sell, trade, and own.
They are mine, as in my property. Ten thousand years, when all these companies forget about you, and decides your subscription is no longer ready, many games will be nothing but data, that is patch-less by normal means. The hard drives will not hold so many games, and most people will never get a chance to own them, once a company belly-flops.