SEGA forecast for 2015 (Mystery SKU guessing game)

[Aki-at]

Fiscal Year 2014



We did this last year where we tried to figure what exactly SEGA had in store and for the most part seems we were right. So let's do it again this year!

PS3 - 5 SKU in Q1 - Q2: Sonic & Allstars Racing Transformed (1 / JP) Hatsune Miku Project Diva 2nd F (2 / EU/NA) Alien: Isolation (2? / EU/NA)
PS3 - 6 SKU in Q3 - Q4: Persona 5 (3? / JP/EU/NA) Yakuza 6? (1 / JP) ? ? ?

PS4 - 1 SKU in Q1 - Q2: Alien: Isolation (1 / NA or EU)
PS4 - 2 SKU in Q3 - Q4: Alien: Isolation (1 / NA or EU) Yakuza 6? (1 / JP)
Seems pretty much all they'll have for PS4

Wii U - 1 SKU in Q1 - Q2: Sonic & Allstars Racing Transformed (1 / JP)
Wii U - 3 SKU in Q3 - Q4: Sonic Boom (3? JP/EU/NA)
I think that's pretty much it for Wii U titles

Xbox 360 - 2 SKU in Q1 - Q2: Alien: Isolation (1? NA/EU)
Xbox 360 - 1 SKU in Q3 - Q4: Alien: Isolation (1? NA/EU)
Having 3 SKUs confuses me, perhaps Virtual On is going to get a port for it's 20th anniversary? It could be an Atlus title but they have 2 SKUs releasing in Q1 - Q2... It's very confusing to actually see if SEGA includes Atlus in this report or not.

Xbox One - 1 SKU in Q1 - Q2: Alien: Isolation (1? NA/EU)
Xbox One - 1 SKU in Q3 - Q4: Alien: Isolation (1? NA/EU)
No surprises for the Xbox One

Nintendo 3DS - 2 SKU in Q1 - Q2: Persona Q: Shadow of the Labyrinth (1 / JP) ?
Nintendo 3DS - 11 SKU in Q3 - Q4: Persona Q: Shadow of the Labyrinth (4? NA/EU Regular Edition/Limited Edition) Sonic Boom (3? NA/EU/JP)

PSP - NOTHING
That's right Valkyria fans, the dream is dead... *Salutes*

PSVita - 4 SKU in Q1 - Q2: Football Manager 2014 (1 / EU) Persona 4: Dancing All the Night? (1 / JP) ? ? ?
PSVita - 3 SKU in Q3 - Q4: Phantasy Star Nova (3 / EU/JP/NA)
Yeah I know, a bit too optimistic about PSNova : (

PC - 1 SKU in Q1 - Q2: Alien: Isolation (1 / NA/EU?)
PC - 5 SKU in Q1 - Q2: Alien: Isolation (1 / NA/EU?) Football Manager 2015 (2 / NA/EU) ? ? ?

That about covers it. Now let the mindless speculation begin.

[Barry the Nomad]

Great work!

I thought Sonic Boom wasn't releasing to Japan, it was going to be US/UK only.

[Aki-at]

Great work!

I thought Sonic Boom wasn't releasing to Japan, it was going to be US/UK only.

Could be, which is why I put a ? because what else could SEGA have that will launch in only one region? Maybe Atlus has something in store?

[MadeManG74]

Shenmue 4.

[Aki-at]

Shenmue 4.

Don't be stupid Mang.

That's clearly an Android title.

By Hardlight.

On rails too.

[MadeManG74]

On Rails? I wish, you know it's going to be a farming sim where you can play for ten minutes a day for free, or buy 'Dragon Mirrors' with real currency to extend your gaming time. 

[Mariano]

OK this is going to be fun. I am sure that these numbers are based on retail games and according with FY Presentation of 2013 that SEGA-Sammy released today these numbers count ATLUS games.
This are my guesses:


PS3 Q1Q2 5 SKU: SandASRTranformed for Japan, HMPDivaF2 for EU/US and Persona 4 Arena U for Japan they have date released for august 28. The other is unclear for me but is not alien isolation because that game have release date for October 7(Q3)
Q3Q4: 6 SKU: This one is tricky, Alien isolation for EU/US, Persona 5 for Japan but i dont think we are getting this game until the next fiscal year and Persona 4 Arena U for Japan also. MAYBE Persona 4 arena U for retail for EU/US. That leave 1 SKU. Perhaps something new.


PS4 Q1/Q2. 1SKU No idea what this little friend is.
Q3Q4: 2SKU Alien isolation for EU/US.


WiiU Q1Q2. 1SKU. SandASRTranformed for Jpan (The funny thing is that they expect sales of 0 copies... of less than 10000.
Q3Q4: 3SKU. Sonic Boom for EU/US and i dont know what the other is but is not Sonic Boom for Japan they are not getting that game any time soon at least.


Xbox360: This console case is very confusing for me too... to make it easy they are expecting 3 games which i think they are alien isolation for EU/US and Persona 4 arena U for Japan. Maybe we are not getting Persona 4 arena until the next fiscal year OR we are getting it for digital.


Xbone: Is alien isolation but is weird because they have 1 SKU for Q1Q2 and other for Q3Q4. They expect a delayed in territory?.


Nintendo 3DS: Q1Q2: 2SKU: Conception 2 for US (US get retail versions of this game) and Persona Q for Japan they have release date for June 5.
Q3Q4: 11SKU (To much love XD): Sonic boom for EU/US and Persona Q for EU/US(Limited edition and regular edition count like two others SKU?) . That leave 6 SKU In my opinion, expect something new during the year.


PSP: Nothing.


PSVITA Q1Q2: 4SKU: Conception 2 for US. Football manager for EU ( I believe that US get this game digital) and HatsuneMPdivaF2 for EU/US.
Q3Q4: 3SKU: Phantasy star Nova for Japan and i am sure that persona 4 dancing all night is being release at this time for Japan also. Perhaps the other SKU is retail version of Chan cronicle V, Football manager 2015 for VITA, OR a retail version of Persona 4 D all night for US and not for EU, is commun in Atlus.


PC: Q1Q2: 1SKU: No idea, Maybe something from Relic?
Q3Q4: 5SKU: Alien isolation for EU/US, Football manager 2015 again for EU/US and perhaps the other is the Warhammer game from CA but that should represent 2 SKU and noy one...


[size=78%]This are my calls. I would like to add that maybe not all these SKU have "names" But more likely ideas, we should expect sorprices during the year and finally that the holding plan to introduce another 43 digital games(13 paygames and 30 freetoplay) besides this lits. like the new crazy taxy mobile game, daylight from ATLUS and the second line of 3DClassics.  [/size]

[Nirmugen]

Hello, this is my first post and what a great opportunity to begin writing with the theme I started in the comment section . So, here we go:

With the last news, we might confirm that the mystery SKU's for this year on PS3 is going to be that new Shining game, coming in the last quarter of the year. Also, I think this game is going to be release for the PSVITA too with a Cross-platforming capability (one of the plans by SEGA for this FY2015).
But it only left us 1 SKU's for the PS4. It can be a another version of the same game or can be a new RGG/Yakuza/CS1 game for the system and this is the most certain result because, besides KH3, ,MGS5 and FFXV, Sony needs another strong IP for the Japanese audience to sell PS4s very quickly and to become popular.  That's what I think....sorry for my english if I could be annoying <

[Mariano]

I Think your english is pretty good. About the PS3 SKUs that leaves 3 spots. So far we know:
For Japan, SandSEASRTransformed, Persona 5, Persona 4 Arena U and Shining Resonance.
For EU/US, HatsuneMPDivaF2 and Alien Isolation.
Maybe the Shining game Is going to released at Q4 because the game is, according with Gematsu, only 5 % Complete. So is Q4 or the next fiscal year.
About the others 3 SKU perhaps is a new multiplataform game but dont expect that because accoding with the FY Presentation of 2013, the group plan to release in Japan 14 games under 18 SKU, so there are only a few multiplataform and one is Persona 4 arena U.

[Aki-at]

I believe the early PS3/4/X360/One game is probably Alien: Isolation being shipped to retailers early, something like Walmart, who probably have preordered a number of units from SEGA.

Another way to look at it is the number of titles SEGA has in each specific region.

Japan: 14 titles (18 SKUs)
US: 12 titles (20 SKUs)
Europe: 5 titles (11 SKUs)

Therefore.

Japan: Sonic & Allstars Racing Transformed (2) Shining Resonance (1) Phantasy Star Nova (1) Persona Q: Shadow of the Labyrinth (1) Persona 4: Dancing All Night (1) Persona 5 (1)

6 titles so far with 7 SKUs. The thing to ask is does SEGA's digital titles (IE Initial D for 3DS and Chain Chronicle for the Vita) count towards the total number of titles?

US (Atlus): Conception II: Children of the Seven Stars (2) Daylight (2) Tesla Effect: A Tex Murphy Adventure (1) Persona Q: Shadow of the Labyrinth (1) Persona 4: The Ultimax Ultra Suplex Hold (1) Persona 4: Dancing All Night (1) Abyss Odyssey (3) Persona 4 Arena Ultimax (1)
US (SEGA): Hatsune Miku: Project Diva 2nd F (2) Alien: Isolation (5) Sonic Boom (2) Football Manager 2015 (1)
= 12 titles with 22 SKU?

Something clearly up here but not sure exactly what.

Europe: Football Manager 2014 Vita (1) Hatsune Miku: Project Diva 2nd F (2) Alien: Isolation (5) Football Manager 2015 (1) Sonic Boom (2) = 5 titles with 11 SKUs

I think it's safe to assume there will be no major surprises from SEGA at E3, the big event seems like it's going to be the Tokyo Game Show.

[Mariano]

I am 100% sure that these numbers ONLY included retail games (if those games can be sell also by digital plataforms like STEAM thats another thing). For example, "The cave" and "typing of the dead" were not included in the last year FY Presentation, also with "Sonic dash" the 3D Classisc and other Ports or ONLY digital games.
I agree that there will be not big sorprises in the E3 but we can always expect a nice susprise sold in a digital plataform.

[Nirmugen]

Daylight has been released by Guy Studios for PC, so 1 SKU less.

This game and Tesla Effect are both digital download titles and they couldn't count in this category probably because the P2P-F2P classification of games done by SEGA.

That only means that there are another 2 mystery games which are going to be released by Atlus or Sega this year for US perhaps...or maybe they count those digital games. I say this for the Abyss Odissey game which is also a downloable digital game.

The principal problem is the extra SKU.

Could be there are a few surprises this year?

[Mariano]

At the end i dont think is going to be retail surprices at least. For EU is pretty much it (Sorry guys ) and for US maybe ATLUS plan to bring them some of the games they will release in Japan but for retail, to count on this list.
Beyond that, the fact that SEGA and also ATLUS (in a less way) plan to concentrate even more on digital games, can bring us the chance to see lots of games but published on a digital plataform. This suck for many people but is something very benefit to many companies that can be good for us at the end, because the chance to see more games increased if the distribution is less complicated.   

[Nameless 24]

Could be, which is why I put a ? because what else could SEGA have that will launch in only one region? Maybe Atlus has something in store?

Probably Fire Emblem x SMT  (Japan gets it early)

Regarding PS Vita Q3, it's likely Miku or something.

You also need to add Shining Resonance as 1 SKU! (let's face it, we're not getting that)

The 3DS one looks very interesting...I have a feeling Hero Bank could get a small time release given how awful it did in Japan (unless they are happy with below 30k sales...)

[Aki-at]

The 3DS one looks very interesting...I have a feeling Hero Bank could get a small time release given how awful it did in Japan (unless they are happy with below 30k sales...)

Actually Hero Bank has sold 44,000 units so far. After it's poor first week sales, it just continued to sell and sell.

Slowing down now (2.5k per week) so it might just cap off at 60,000 - 70,000 or so. But the anime is certainly giving it a fair push.