I really don't know why people assumed that VF6 wasn't coming. The series is still a cash cow for Sega. And its the perfect year to release it...
This year? I don't think they'll announce anything this year, unless there's a big surprise soon. I do think it'll still come eventually, as you said, it's still a big hit for Japanese Arcades and I think Final Showdown actually performed quite well. Not to mention they supported Sega Cup again this year, I don't see why they would do that for a game that isn't coming out.
On a related note, I placed fourth last weekend at a tournament in Buffalo, NY :D