That's fair.
Well, I imagine the Alien game will be reasonably successful; likewise with the next Total War, Football Manager and whatever Relic is making. I imagine as the generation continues, Sega's PC output will become more impressive. The western end of the company, from what I can tell, hasn't been this strong since the mid 1990s.
I'm not sure what to think about the Japanese market. From what I can tell, they're making all the right moves. They've had several reasonable hits on the mobile market, PSO 2 has had, what, 2 million downloads - probably quite a bit more since that report came out. That's definitely helping that brand's awareness. Despite it getting stale, the Yakuza games are still doing quite well. It's about to celebrate its tenth birthday, no?
Japanese arcades are about dead, and I think Sega's still adapting to that. The company doesn't really have too much experience with games that last more than 5 hours and its becoming harder to justify asking consumers to spend 50 dollars on something like a Daytona game.