Is there a chance that a new Virtua Fighter could skip arcades altogether?
A chance, but I'd be extremely surprised, considering VF would be a relatively low cost/high return arcade machine for Sega. It's cheaper to bust out VF cabinets than fucking horse racing simulators or whatever, and I think that VF's brand is still reliant on Arcades. It's like a blockbuster movie, it makes more money on DVD than in theatres, but nobody cares about it unless it gets a cinema release to 'legitimise' it.
I think next year will be even better sales. For example I think the combination of having Total War and Warhammer together will boost the sales of the next entry. I think right now the highest selling one (under SEGA) is Empire with over 3 million units. I would beat that Total Warhammer will do over 4 million when its all said and done.
I also think the next Sonic the Hedgehog title by Sonic Team, which I assume will be on multiplatform titles, will do a lot better than Sonic Boom, which isn't a hard thing to beat. I will say 2 million is a easy to reach for number.
Then we also have the next Creative Assembly blockbuster title that SEGA has been teasing. Now that Creative Assembly has that in-house engine that ran Isolation, I assume cost/profit margin will be larger for the next title.
The only thing I'm scared of is what the Yakuza team will be working on. That is a series that has been constantly down (slowly). I think the team really needs to give the franchise a break and try to get a new passion project up and running (not a game like Binary Domain that has a agenda, like being 'world wide hit', just a game they want to do).
I also think mobile titles will be more focused, less titles that will more likely bring in more money. SEGA is really understanding the trends of mobile better than most Japanese publishers. I assume Sonic Runners will be huge, especially if they tie-in items and unlockables with the console game like most new triple A games are doing.
I agree Warhammer should be big. It's going to be a very different game too, so should maybe draw in new audiences not just with the license but people looking for fantasy games and the like.
Sonic being multiplat alone will help it sell much much more than a Nintendo exclusive.
I would really like to see Yakuza team work on something new. I would even love to see them make a new Streets of Rage game, just recycle the fighting engine from Yakuza with some minor changes, change the art direction, and make it more focused on pure action and fighting for example. Personal dream-wankery aside, there's a lot of potential for what they could do, even if they wanted to recycle engine/assets/gameplay.
I have always seen the mobile market space as the replacement for arcade. Sadly its replacing almost everything..
I've heard this argument a lot, and in some ways I see it, like the high volume low $ model, but done in a completely different way.